The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has found that there is a nearly direct correlation between the accumulation of human-caused emissions and global warming.
If the world wants to slow global warming then it needs to reduce emissions.
Graphic: Figure SPM.10 in IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY,USA, pp. 3−32, doi: 10.1017/9781009157896.001 .]
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Stop Emissions Stop Warming Substack article by Andrew Dressler The Climate Brink
Global Emission Reduction Goals
The Paris Agreement
In 2015 at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP21), 196 Countries signed the Paris Agreement a legally binding international treaty on climate change. The Paris Agreement entered into force on 4 November 2016.
The goal of the Paris Agreement is to hold “the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels” and pursue efforts “to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.”
To reach this goal countries submit Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC’s) - actions they will take to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. They communicate in their NDC’s actions that they will take to build resilience to adapt to climate change impacts. The NDC’s are listed in the United Nations Climate Change NDC Registry and are updated every 5 years. In 2025 the countries are expected to submit their 3rd NDC; NDC 3.0. The next round of NDC’s will be required in 2035.
2025 is a Ratchet Year under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. In February all countries are expected to submit their 2035 NDC targets, then in December all the countries will meet in Belem, Brazil. The 2035 NDC targets are extremely critical since they need to collectively add up to a commitment to get us back on track for 1.5 degree warming.
The IPCC states to limit global warming to 1.5°C, greenhouse gas emissions must peak before 2025 at the latest and decline 43% by 2030.
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Brittanica Encyclopedia Timeline of Climate Change
Global Carbon Budget
In order to meet the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming well below 2°C a Global Carbon Budget is set each year to determine the amount of CO2 that can be added to the atmosphere for this temperature target.
The remaining carbon budget diminishes each year, and according to Climate Change Tracker the remaining carbon budget for the 50% likelihood of limiting warming to 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) was estimated in IPCC AR6 to be 200 Gt CO2 from the start of 2024.
According to The Global Carbon Budget over 40 billion tonnes of emissions are released globally each year so at the current rate the budget will be exhausted by 2029.
The Climate Clock, which counts down the critical time window to reach zero emissions while tracking progress on key solution pathways currently reports:
Canada's Emission Reduction Targets
Emissions projections and progress toward the 2030 target Canada.ca 2024 National Greenhouse Gas Inventory
